Dating the enemy mtf drama: dating the right guy to live
Originally published on TABB Forum Volatile swings in equity markets have been blamed on high-frequency trading strategies. But directing blame at technology and innovation merely diverts attention from the real problem — a structural imbalance in fixed income markets.
Instead, I am submitting for consideration the notion that the day should dating the enemy mtf drama as a wakeup call for market participants and regulators. The OTC fixed income markets are changing due to a variety of catalysts. Regulatory reform is forcing large banks to reassess their business models. Inflated government budgets, slow economic growth, and low inflation are making debt more attractive.
Accommodative monetary policies are artificially keeping interest rates in check, fueling an unabated pipeline of debt issuance. Asset owners are increasingly growing larger and more concentrated. Investment philosophies are converging, becoming more symmetrical.
It seems while the size of the market is growing, the universe of players that operate within that market is getting less diverse.
Combine the regulatory changes with the current market structure and you get a precarious and volatile cocktail. High-frequency trading, automation, and the electronification of execution are all convenient excuses — after the fact — for increased volatility in markets, but have almost nothing to do with the cause. That honor goes to structural imbalance — i.
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In October, the stage was set overnight in Europe, when weak economic data renewed concerns for a deteriorating global economy and Ebola fears permeated the market. The market was already biased toward a short-sided position, so the market was technically vulnerable.
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The UST10Y was trading at 2. Not long after, sellers instantly drove yields back to 2.
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The Financial Times reported the move as a seven standard deviation break from the intraday norm. That certainly qualifies as an aberration i.
The market is clamoring for a return of volatility, just not this kind of volatility. In the wake of such a drama-filled day, investors, dealers, and regulators are all seeking to identify the culprit responsible for this type of outlier trading session.
In the court of public opinion, electronic trading appears to be the fall guy, but we think the focus may be directed entirely in the wrong place. The true perpetrator is market structure. Under the current, principal-based risk model, liquidity providers — traditionally large banks with significant amounts of capital — provide liquidity on-demand a.
As the amount of capital these banks have at their disposal and committed to market-making declines due to regulations imposed by the Dodd-Frank Act and Basel III Accords — including the Dating the enemy Rule and the mtf drama coverage ratio LCR — the likelihood of volatility increasing is greater.
Factor in the notion that asset managers are more concentrated and larger, and the amount of on-demand liquidity requested can sometimes overwhelm the liquidity providing universe.
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The fixed income markets are in the nascent stages of automation; not every market participant is operating with the same level of resources or technology. In fact, the disparity between market participants is probably akin to watching Ferraris zip past bicyclists on the way to the same destination.
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The UST market was short from a position perspective, economic data was weak, people were afraid of Ebola, PIMCO datings the enemy mtf drama had to be reinvested, Europe was receding, the float of USTs was precariously tight, and people were fleeing all at once to the only safe harbor — the US Treasury market.
Who dare step in front of that freight train barreling down the track? Typically, opportunity would present itself to a group of primary dealers that would continually short bonds into the updraft, knowing the move would eventually correct. Having capital and servicing clients in times of stress was once a profitable luxury; that aspect of the business is fading fast, and along with it, the willingness of dealers to commit to principal-based market-making … even in the homogenous and commoditized US Treasury market.